Speaker
Description
Extraterrestrial natural hazards, particularly the impact of asteroids, meteorites, and other celestial bodies on Earth, are low-probability events with potentially severe and cascading consequences. Despite their potential impacts, these hazards have received limited attention in Iran’s disaster risk management and preparedness planning. This study focuses on Central Iran and proposes a scenario-based model for preparedness and response that can simulate the potential consequences of a celestial-body impact by integrating event-specific characteristics with evidence and lessons learned from previous disasters in the region. The proposed model first defines impact scenarios based on parameters such as probable location, impact magnitude, and affected area. It then assesses potential direct and cascading consequences for population, buildings, transportation networks, energy and communication systems, critical infrastructure, and emergency services. Observed patterns of damage and disruption from previous earthquakes, floods, storms, and other disasters are incorporated as empirical evidence for developing and refining the impact scenarios. The model is expected to generate spatial and operational scenarios for Central Iran and identify corresponding actions across the pre-impact preparedness, early-warning, emergency-response, and post-impact recovery phases. The study argues that improving Iran’s preparedness for extraterrestrial hazards does not require waiting for an actual event. Instead, scenario modeling combined with spatial data and lessons learned from previous disasters can provide a practical basis for identifying vulnerabilities, testing response capacities, and strengthening preparedness for rare but potentially catastrophic events.